A hotel, a resort, or a mixed-use scheme wins underwriting on a demand case that shows how the asset grows when any single route, event, or source market moves.
An investment committee reviewing a tourism asset sees a growth story: arrivals up, rates up, a destination on the rise. The story is usually true, and it is the reason to look closer, because the upside sits in the structure underneath it. A resort whose occupancy rests on one seasonal route grows fastest when a second route opens. A hotel whose rate premium comes from one annual event grows when the calendar around it fills. A scheme with a single source country grows when a second market opens.
Break the demand case into the components that move independently, and test each for upside as well as downside. Demand by origin, by route, by timing, by purpose, by price sensitivity. Then ask, for each: what share of the asset’s revenue rests on this, what happens to the case if it goes, and what a second source would add. A case that rests 40% on one route has a route lever. Diversify that route, or write the covenant that protects it, and the asset is worth more to the next buyer than the growth forecast alone suggests.
A binding constraint is the first thing that stops growth.
A physical-risk survey tells the committee about the building. The demand case tells them about the bookings, years earlier. Source markets shift their timing as summers get hotter. Insurers reprice before a claim is filed. Sustainable aviation fuel changes a route’s economics before any aircraft is replaced. Each moves demand before it moves the structure, so the asset that models them across the hold is ready when the market moves.
Re-run the same model against current conditions at every review. Occupancy, rate, and value against the forecast, with the driver named: the route that was added, the event that was won, the market that opened. That times the hold, refinance or exit on evidence the next buyer can test for themselves, and the case that got the asset in supports the best price at exit.
The dependency map takes the asset through due diligence, supports its growth through the hold and sets the price at exit. The method is on the pages for investors and funds and tourism investment and FDI. For further reading, see OECD Tourism Trends and Policies 2024.
Ask what share of revenue rests on the largest route, event and source market, and what a second of each would add. An asset that spreads its demand grows through the hold, and an owner who can show it gets better terms.
A hotel, a resort, or a mixed-use scheme fails underwriting when a single route, a single annual event, or a single source market turns out to be carrying more of the demand case than the committee realised. The dependency is the risk, and it can be measured before signature.
None of the three states what it includes, what period it covers, or whether the money stayed. A footprint figure is only useful when it carries its own definitions, and it is only defensible when it is kept separate from impact.
A race track, an arena, a stadium: each is built for a peak it reaches a few dozen times a year. The gap between peak and off-peak operational need is the commercial challenge behind every sports-anchored development, and the reason mixed use is the answer rather than the fashion.
Manchester United’s proposed stadium is a £2bn, 100,000-seat ground by Foster + Partners, with a target opening of 2030-31. The club and the regeneration case cite £7.3bn a year for the economy and 92,000 jobs. Those are the promoters’ projections. Here is what to test before believing them.
The owners of the Bulls and the Blackhawks are putting a reported US$7bn into 55 acres around the United Center: housing, a music hall, a hotel, retail, a park. The arena already hosts more than 200 events a year. The question a developer should ask is what the other 165 nights are worth.
International arrivals to the United States fell 4.2% in 2025 while worldwide travel grew about 4%. Living Lab’s displacement model puts the forgone spending at roughly US$50bn, and about US$10.6bn of it within reach of five economies. Each is limited by a different constraint.
