Living Lab’s first economic model was for the Singapore Grand Prix in 2012. In 2025 we became a software platform: government-grade intelligence for the visitor economy
Tourism levy impact assessment. Living Lab connects the tourism board’s visitor data, the housing department’s licensing register, and the transport authority’s route data, so a change proposed in one domain is traced through to its effect on the others, and the reform is tested as a system rather than a measure. Reference data is published by the OECD.
Attributes what a comparable past reform changed, here or in another jurisdiction: gross change through counterfactual, displacement, and leakage to attributable effect. Whether the levy shifted bookings to an unregulated channel. Whether the cap pushed short-stay demand next door. Signal137 gives the policy team the precedent, measured.
Tests the options on the table before the instrument is set: no change, a moderate cap, a strict cap, each with its effect on licensed supply and on displacement to unlicensed listings and neighbouring authorities. Demand137 prices the displacement into the instrument before it is signed, and phases the reform against the pipeline and the bids already in motion.
| Product | Your question | You get | What it changes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Demand137 | Whether to introduce or adjust a levy, cap, or licensing rule | The modelled effect on demand and behaviour, not only projected revenue at current volume | The instrument and its level set with the displacement effect already priced in |
| Demand137 | Where to phase a reform against commitments already in motion | The reform tested against the hotel pipeline and hosting bids approved under the old rules | The change sequenced so it does not undercut its own prior commitments |
| Demand137 | What does the rule do to the neighbouring district? | Displacement to adjacent streets, unlicensed listings, and neighbouring authorities, modelled | The rule does not protect one area by quietly taxing another |
| Demand137 | Which of three levels of cap actually works? | Licensed supply and displacement under each, side by side | A cap that looks decisive against one measure and reckless against another is seen as both |
| Demand137 | What happens if we do nothing? | The no-change case as the reference, with the counterfactual stated | The cost of the status quo is priced alongside the cost of the reform |
| Signal137 | What did the comparable reform elsewhere actually change? | Attribution for a past reform, in this or another jurisdiction | The precedent measured, not cited |
| Signal137 | Did our last reform do what it said? | The result set against the counterfactual, with displacement named | The next reform is designed on what the last one did |
| Both | How do we defend the choice once the affected parties respond? | A traceable chain from source and assumption to result, with uncertainty stated | One evidence base policy, finance, and communications can each stand behind |
| Both | Does this replace consultation or legal review? | No. It produces the counterfactual, assumption set, and range those processes ask for | The consultation response is built on evidence |
| Both | Who holds this, and where? | Model, data, and a trained team inside your jurisdiction | The capability survives the change of minister or official |
A hotel, a resort, or a mixed-use scheme fails underwriting when a single route, a single annual event, or a single source market turns out to be carrying more of the demand case than the committee realised. The dependency is the risk, and it can be measured before signature.
None of the three states what it includes, what period it covers, or whether the money stayed. A footprint figure is only useful when it carries its own definitions, and it is only defensible when it is kept separate from impact.
International arrivals to the United States fell 4.2% in 2025 while worldwide travel grew about 4%. Living Lab’s displacement model puts the forgone spending at roughly US$50bn, and about US$10.6bn of it within reach of five economies. Each is limited by a different constraint.
At the Italian Grand Prix, the fleet of guest vehicles arrives on German plates with German drivers. The hospitality guests do not sleep in Monza, which hosts the race. They sleep in Milan, which does not. The town that pays captures a fraction of what the event generates.
Tourism is close to a tenth of the world’s output and employment, and almost every government still plans it in pieces. A country that governs its visitor economy as one system keeps more of what it pays for. On an illustrative US$20bn economy, five points of retention is US$1bn a year.
We turn messy event and tourism data into decisions that help communities grow. Bring curiosity and rigour. We will hand you questions nobody has answered yet.
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