
Seven countries bid for 2036: what a Games delivers to its host
Hamburg, Rome and Budapest pulled out of the 2024 race. This time the field is full, and each bidder can build its case on what it has already hosted.
At the Italian Grand Prix, the guest vehicles arrive on German plates with German drivers. The guests stay at hotels in Milan, and the fleet returns to Germany with the catering, the hospitality furniture and most of the revenue. Grand Prix economic leakage, followed category by category, shows a host exactly where its share of the weekend can grow.
The author spent years in Formula One operations, and the Monza pattern is one of the clearest in the sport. Monza pays for the race and has few hotels, so the hospitality guests sleep in Milan. Each category of spend the host town brings home is a share it can grow next year.
The race weekend produces gross spend on transport, accommodation, catering, and hospitality. Follow it, and most of it leaves Monza the moment it is spent: the vehicles supplied from outside the country, the rooms in another city, the catering contract national. Leakage is value that enters the local economy through visitor spend and then leaves it. Measure it category by category, because the lever for accommodation is not the lever for transport.
The test was the World Cup. Living Lab, 2026
Monza is a small town beside a large city, so the pattern is visible. In a national economy the same thing happens across a border, and a country that measures it finds the same pattern. Absorptive capacity is the concept behind both. It is how much demand a place’s supply chain can take on before the value flows to imports, to the next city or to the operator who flew in for the week. Grow the capacity in the right categories and the value flows to the host.
A host cannot build a hotel district for one weekend a year. It can decide which categories of spend it wants to keep, and act on those: a local supplier condition on the transport contract, a hospitality village on site rather than in the city, a procurement rule for catering, a package that brings the guests to the town for the night. Test each decision before signing, for what it retains and what it returns, and the host grows its share of the weekend with the two or three moves that pay most.
Events are sold to a town on gross figures. Ask how much the town keeps. That depends on decisions the town controls, so it is the number to test in the contract. The case is in the test was the World Cup. The method is on the page for supply-chain leakage.
Before the next hosting agreement, ask for the leakage by category, not the gross figure. Then ask which two categories the town could capture with a package, a supplier programme, or a hospitality product of its own.

Hamburg, Rome and Budapest pulled out of the 2024 race. This time the field is full, and each bidder can build its case on what it has already hosted.
A hotel, a resort, or a mixed-use scheme fails underwriting when a single route, a single annual event, or a single source market turns out to be carrying more of the demand case than the committee realised. The dependency is the risk, and it can be measured before signature.
None of the three states what it includes, what period it covers, or whether the money stayed. A footprint figure is only useful when it carries its own definitions, and it is only defensible when it is kept separate from impact.
Manchester United’s proposed stadium is a £2bn, 100,000-seat ground by Foster + Partners, with a target opening of 2030-31. The club and the regeneration case cite £7.3bn a year for the economy and 92,000 jobs. Those are the promoters’ projections. Here is what to test before believing them.
International arrivals to the United States fell 4.2% in 2025 while worldwide travel grew about 4%. Living Lab’s displacement model puts the forgone spending at roughly US$50bn, and about US$10.6bn of it within reach of five economies. Each is limited by a different constraint.
At the Italian Grand Prix, the fleet of guest vehicles arrives on German plates with German drivers. The hospitality guests do not sleep in Monza, which hosts the race. They sleep in Milan, which does not. The town that pays captures a fraction of what the event generates.
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